The Forecast Accuracy Ledger

Every month, when actual home prices publish, we grade the previous month's forecasts against them: ours, and Zillow's published forecast, metro by metro. Wins, losses, and the size of every miss go here. A forecaster who won't show you the scoreboard is asking for faith.

Monthly scoreboard

A "win" is the engine whose forecast landed closer to the realized value for that metro. Both engines are graded against identical realized values. Zillow forecast © Zillow, graded here for comparison.