Where we disagree with Zillow
Two independent forecasting engines look at the same market and reach different conclusions. Among the 250 largest US metros, ours and Zillow's published forecast agree on the twelve-month direction in 194 markets and disagree in 48. The disagreements are listed below, dated, and will be graded on this page as actuals arrive. A forecaster who won't show you the scoreboard is asking for faith.
Largest 12-month disagreements — through September 2027
| Metro | Sialim | Zillow's forecast | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Charles, LA | +4.49% | -2.50% | 7.0pp |
| Charlotte, NC | -2.35% | +0.70% | 3.0pp |
| Bremerton, WA | +1.51% | -1.50% | 3.0pp |
| Denver, CO | -2.76% | +0.20% | 3.0pp |
| Miami, FL | -0.11% | +2.60% | 2.7pp |
| Gainesville, GA | -2.23% | +0.40% | 2.6pp |
| Atlanta, GA | -1.70% | +0.80% | 2.5pp |
| Louisville, KY | -0.21% | +2.20% | 2.4pp |
| Durham, NC | -2.26% | 0.00% | 2.3pp |
| Charleston, SC | -0.84% | +1.40% | 2.2pp |
| Bowling Green, KY | -1.47% | +0.70% | 2.2pp |
| Jacksonville, FL | -1.34% | +0.80% | 2.1pp |
| Washington, DC | -0.81% | +1.30% | 2.1pp |
| Charlottesville, VA | -0.13% | +1.90% | 2.0pp |
| McAllen, TX | -0.33% | +1.60% | 1.9pp |
| Colorado Springs, CO | -1.64% | +0.20% | 1.8pp |
| Daphne, AL | -0.80% | +1.00% | 1.8pp |
| San Francisco, CA | -0.37% | +1.40% | 1.8pp |
| Riverside, CA | -0.27% | +1.50% | 1.8pp |
| Bakersfield, CA | -0.31% | +1.40% | 1.7pp |
| Tampa, FL | -1.20% | +0.50% | 1.7pp |
| Nashville, TN | -1.69% | 0.00% | 1.7pp |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | -0.08% | +1.60% | 1.7pp |
| Provo, UT | -0.23% | +1.40% | 1.6pp |
| College Station, TX | -1.29% | +0.30% | 1.6pp |
Scope: metros ranked in the 250 largest, opposite 12-month direction, gap of at least 1 percentage point. Zillow forecast © Zillow, shown for comparison; horizons aligned to the nearest published month. Each metro page carries the full three-horizon comparison. Forecasts are model output, not advice.